ENHANCED INTEGRATED MULTISCALE FORECASTING SYSTEM FOR AGRICULTURE, WATER AND THE ENVIRONMENT

2024

CONSELLERIA DE EDUCACION, UNIVERSIDADES Y EMPLEO

INV. COMPETITIVA PROYECTOS

Pulido Velázquez Manuel Augusto

The Mediterranean region is an area of special incidence of climate change, with reductions in average annual precipitation, increases in evapotranspiration as a result of increased temperatures, hotter and drier summers, and more frequent and intense droughts. Agriculture and the environment, two of the most important assets of the Valencian Community, are threatened by climate change. In this context, the efficient management of water resources takes on decisive importance. Reflections on the outcomes achieved in the previous project WATER4CAST project (reference PROMETEO/2021/074) have shown that new developments, new indicators, and an increase in the temporal and spatial resolution of the analysis were necessary. The scope of the project is extended to include not only short-term (up to 15 days), subseasonal (up to 8 weeks), and seasonal (up to 7 months) forecasts, but also long-term projections corresponding to different models and climate change scenarios. New key indicators are included (for heat and cold waves; droughts; fire risk, etc.), and flood risk prediction is incorporated through detailed hydrological modeling at a sub-daily scale. The visualization tool is completed and improved, including the possibility of downloading data and subscribing to an individual alert system for the variables of interest. The new platform will allow irrigators or irrigation communities to subscribe to irrigation recommendations based on forecasts (on weather and irrigation needs) down to the individual plot scale. New developments will be made in parallel with a participatory process to define the needs and preferences of users, co-designing the tool in its successive stages. Interaction with users will ensure not only the practical relevance of what is designed, but also its acceptance and penetration, with the aim of this free and open access tool being tested and applied to decision-making by the end users. With the proposed changes, the tool will become an integrated system for displaying climate services based on the state-ofthe- art in terms of climate predictions and their innovative adaptation through numerical modeling and artificial intelligence, with the aim of improving decision making. of end users through personalized climate services in a wide range of indicators and variables linked to water management in the basin, efficient irrigation management and improvement of the conditions of aquatic ecosystems.