Climate Change and the Increase of Wildfire Risk in the Upper Jucar River Basin, Spain

Autores UPV
Año
CONGRESO Climate Change and the Increase of Wildfire Risk in the Upper Jucar River Basin, Spain

Abstract

The Mediterranean area is one of the most vulnerable areas to the climate change. The IPCC's fifth report (AR5) predicts an increase in temperature and a reduction in precipitation to the Southern Europe. Results from two Global Climate Models (HadGEM2-ES and MPI-ESM-MR) and four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP: 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5) scenarios are used to asses the increase on wildfire risk in the Upper Jucar River Basin, Spain. Two indexes are applied: the Fire Weather Index (FWI) and the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI). FWI is better correlated than KBDI to the number of wildfires registered during the period 1972-2012. The wildfire risk will increase: from high to very high in august (in the short-term) and July and August are always under very high risk of wildfire at the end of the century. The potential number of wildfires per season could increase from 40% (short-term) to 80-100% (long-term)